000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301502
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1102 AM EDT FRI JUL 30 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE
NORTH FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THEN BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD TODAY. WITH THE COOLER AIR...BUT ADDED
SUNSHINE SHOULD SEE A DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY FOR
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. HAVE LOWERED POPS DOWN 5 PERCENT OR
LESS TODAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A BIT TRICKY AS THE 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORT MID 80S READINGS AND WITH THE FLOW MORE NRLY THAN
NWRLY WILL PROBABLY NOT GET MUCH DOWN SLOPE EFFECTS TO HELP. BUT
WITH AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND CURRENT READINGS IN THE LOW 80S
ALREADY DID NOT WANT TO LOWER HIGHS AT THIS TIME...AS DIFFERENCES
WOULD BE ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

PREV DISCUSSION...
MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS IN STORE ACRS THE REGION TDY...AS HI
PRES BLDS IN FM THE NNW. NNE SFC WNDS WILL PROVIDE LWR DWPTS IN
THE 50S TO LWR 60S...UNDR A MSTLY SNY SKY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CNTR OF THE HI WILL BLD TO OVR NY/PA BY SAT MORNG. MSTLY CLR
OR PRTLY CLDY AND STILL COMFORTABLE WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S
TO MID 60S. THE HI SLIDES EWRD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST BY SAT
NGT. PRTLY SNY ON SAT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90.
WITH THE HIGH TO OUR E...THE LO-LVL FLO WILL TURN MORE TO THE
S...EXCEPT REMAINING E OR SE AT THE NC CST. THIS WILL USHER SOME
MOIST/CLDS UP FROM THE SSW...PARTICULARLY INTO OUR WRN ZONES
NEAREST THE MTNS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS ANY TSTMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS...AND THUS
HAVE LEFT OUT POPS IN THE WRN CNTIES SAT AFTN.

INCRSNG LO LVL MOIST FM THE S AND PRESENCE OF A SHRTWV TROF MOVNG
INTO AND ACRS THE AREA SAT NGT THRU SUN...WILL PROVIDE SLGT 20
OR SML CHC 30 POPS FOR SHRAS/TSRAS OVR ALL AREAS BUT EXTRM SE VA
AND NE NC SAT NGT...THEN 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS ALL AREAS ON SUN.
MIN TEMPS SAT NGT IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70...AND HIGHS ON SUN IN
THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE MID LVL PATTERN...ECMWF STILL SLIGHTLY MORE CONTINUING TO BE
SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW A TROUGH OF MODERATE
STRENGTH MOVING THROUGH THE NE STATES/MID ATLC SUN NGT/ERLY
MONDAY...AND WELL OFF THE COAST LATE MON/TUE. WILL CONTINUE FAIRLY
HIGH POPS 40 SUN NGT ALL AREAS WITH FAIRLY DEEP MSTR SEEN IN
THE MODELS TSECTIONS AND COOL AIR ALOFT. SHOULD SEE HIGHER POPS
CONFINED FARTHER E ON MON...AND THEN DRY ALL AREAS BY MON EVENING
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE N IN RESPONSE TO SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. HIGH TEMPS MON STAY FAIRLY COOL COMPARED TO
WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED THUS FAR THIS SUMMER...MAINLY MID-UPR
80S TO ARND 90.

EXPECT TO SEE A WARMING TREND TUE-WED WITH HIGHS BACK INTO AT
LEAST THE LWR 90S OVER THE INTERIOR AND UPR 80S AT THE COAST ALONG
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SCHC AFTN TSTMS BY WED. NEXT FRONT
LOOKS TO MOVE THRU THU...WILL CARRY 20-30 POPS ALL ZONES AND
HIGHS MAINLY 90-95 AND LOWS 70-75.

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED S OF THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
MAY BRING MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.

.MARINE...
A SURGE IS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL MOVE DOWN THE BAY
AND ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THE HRRR AS WELL AS THE
LOCAL WRF AND RUC ALL DEPICT THE SURGE WELL AND FOLLOWED CLOSELY.
THE LOCAL WRF IS THE STRONGEST AND QUICKEST WHILE WATCHING THE
DEVELOPMENT SEEMS TO INDICATE A LITTLE WEAKER AND NOT AS QUICK SO
WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR TIMING. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE SURGE WILL HAVE
PASSED AND WINDS WILL BE BACK BELOW SMALL CRAFT. BEYOND THIS...A
FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN TONIGHT INTO SAT...AS SFC HI BLDS OVR THE NE
STATES/NEAR MID ATLC. MORE UNCERTAIN FOR SUN/MON AND MODELS SEEM TO
BE NARROWING IN ON A SOLN THAT DEPICTS SFC HI OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
CST...AND AT LEAST A TROF OF LO PRES MOVNG INTO AND ACRS THE
AREA...RESULTING IN E OR SE FLO AROUND 15 KT.

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632-
     633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ630-631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-
     658.

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...ESS/TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG/JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...JAB
MARINE...JAB