000
FXUS64 KMRX 301501
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 30 2010

.DISCUSSION...MORNING FOG BURNING OFF. CAP AROUND 5000FT HOLDING
ONTO LOW CLOUDS. MID LEVEL VERY DRY. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NOT
EXPECTED. TEMP ON TRACK. SON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...LAST BIT OF CONVECTION PASSING SE
INTO SWRN NC EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 06Z SURFACE PLOTS SHOWING
COLD FRONT LIKELY FROM NRN PLATEAU COUNTIES EASTWARD TO NEAR TRI.
DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE MUGGY 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND SOME LATE NIGHT PCPN...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS
OF FOG FOR ALL BUT SE TN EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE DROPPING INTO EXTREME NRN GA THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS POSSIBLE...BUT I KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN FOR THE
AFTN HOURS NEAR GSP MY SMOKIES AND SRN MTNS. MOS MAXES SIMILAR AND
I TRENDED CLOSER TO THE WARMER HIGHS WHERE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WERE
NOTED.

KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO RETURN AT
VARYING HEIGHTS. WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND THESE CLOUDS SHOULD INHIBIT
FOG FROM DEVELOPING. GFS MINS QUITE LOWER THAN NAM...WITH A BLEND
CHOSEN FOR NOW ON MINS TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH ACROSS ON
SATURDAY...WITH POSSIBLY OF AN MCS TRAVERSING THE AREA.  WILL BEEF
POPS UP INTO THE CHANCE RANGE.  SUNDAY WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP WE HAVE GOING FOR
NOW...THEN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND CONTINUES
TUESDAY.  WILL GO DRY BOTH DAYS...DESPITE SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHETHER THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION.  RIDGE FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD...AND WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH WED AND THU.  WE
SHOULD STAY ON THE HOT SIDE...AND GFS MOS TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK
REASONABLE SO ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT TN             96  71  95  73  96 /  10  10  40  30  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT TN  93  67  91  70  93 /  10  10  30  30  20
OAK RIDGE TN                       92  67  92  70  94 /  10  10  30  30  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT TN              90  62  87  64  90 /  10  10  30  30  20

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

TG/LDW