000
FXUS62 KGSP 071106
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
606 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY...WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE LATER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO BUILD OVERHEAD WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS
AND CALM TO LGT S WINDS THIS MRNG. AFTER A COLD START...SEE FREEZE
WARNING/FROST ADVISORY FOR PIEDMONT AREAS...TEMPS WILL WARM QUICKLY
TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE M-U60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH
L-M60S MTNS. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD TONIGHT WITH S-SW WINDS
AT THE SFC. EVEN THOUGH SKIES WILL BE MCLEAR OVERNIGHT...RISING
THICKNESS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE U30S-L40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH
30S IN THE MTNS.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 AM SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILD ALONG
THE EAST COAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BEGINNING A SLIGHT
EASTWARD PROGRESSION/BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. HIGH
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/INCREASED THICKNESS WILL RESULT IN VERY WARM MAXES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MANY AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MID 70S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN THE MTN VALLEYS COULD SEE
THE LOWER 70S. MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MAY MODERATE TEMPS JUST A BIT. ALTHOUGH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO SETTLE TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS...FROST/FREEZE WILL NOT BE A CONCERN DURING THIS
TIME.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A SW TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST RESULTS IN COMPLETE BREAKDOWN/EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM IDA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN GULF EARLY TUESDAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SPREADING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IDA INTO THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEP IT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS NOT AS EXCITED ABOUT THIS SCENARIO.
CONSIDERING ITS TRACK RECORD AND SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS...IT
APPEARS THE GFS IS THE WAY TO GO WITH THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL SUFFICIENT UNCERTAINTY TO CONTINUE WITH A CONSERVATIVE POP
FORECAST. WE WILL MAINTAIN AN AREA OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
TUESDAY...BUT HAVE ACTUALLY TEMPERED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE NORTH.

AFTER LINGERING TOKEN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT...THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED BY DRY/COOL
HIGH PRESSURE.

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...FEW TO SCT250 WITH LGT S TO SW WIND...
INCRSNG TO 5-10 KTS THRU THE AFTN...THEN LGT AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATE VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. EXPECTED AREAS OF MRNG FOG...MAINLY NEAR RIVERS AND
LAKES. COLD FRONT MOVES IN TUE WITH CHC SHWRS AND CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ018-026-028.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ029.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ508-510.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035037-056-
     057-068072-082.
SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ001007-010.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ008-009-
     011014-019.

SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...RB